ITT: Why 11-point lead = tossup

[Xisiqomelir]

I am anxious to hear the arguments.

[Gormal]

An eleven point lead is a tossup in the same way that a minority popular vote is a presidential win.

[avak]

Well, toss-up is a pretty bad description of what the race has become. Obama is on the verge of a blow out if this trend continues. In terms of last minute mistakes...really, who is more likely to blow it now? Obama, who has been rock solid for 19 months? Or McCain, who is making routine missteps and is known for unpredictability and a bad temper? McCain has no more rabbits in his hat. Show's over.

As for the polls. Popular votes don't win elections...electoral colleges do. So, an 11% lead (on the high end according to RCP) is not a guaranteed win. McCain's apparent strategy was to polarize the electorate and work swing states...and he's getting trounced.

[Gormal]

McCain could be doing so much better if he'd take a que from Obama and ping on the Clinton administration for the housing legislation and play a little dirtier. Even the republican pundits are saying that McCain simply isn't doing what it takes to win. Obama is going to pull further ahead unless something drastic happens to his image. Everyone wants to bet on the winning horse, and at this point there's enough of a margin to push people into Obama's camp.

[Ragorn]

It's actually the opposite problem... McCain has stopped addressing the issues and has started attacking Obama's image (see also: William Ayers). The Clinton administration also has nothing at all to do with Barack Obama. Obama wasn't even a senator when those bills were passed, so unless you're looking to point fingers at a political party rather than a candidate, I don't see how b-b-b-but Clinton'ing is going to help any.

[Gormal]

The democrats have an easy job making McCain look like the inferior candidate simply because of his party affiliation. They're also blaming Reagan constantly for the current economic crisis, while the right doesn't really fire back. Party affiliation tends to act like a backdrop for most candidates, and the dems have done a great job of propping up a mural of Bush and their gripes with conservatives, I've never felt like McCain really went after the opposition.

As far as pointing a finger at Clinton helping, Obama has used the Clinton-era prosperity as a talking point on democrat success. That image could use a little truthful tarnish on it.

[Xisiqomelir]

No change, so I guess it's still a toss-up.

[Ragorn]

You can stop pasting Gallup and start pasting 538.

[Xisiqomelir]

Did you see Nate on Colbert the other day? So damn sexy. You just know Steven simply hits refresh on his page all the time and claims that as billable hours.

[Xisiqomelir]

Republican landslide incoming?