Wells Fargo

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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby kiryan » Fri Apr 10, 2009 9:00 pm

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/In ... tical.aspx

Jubak talking about some of the dynamic changes in investors. His general statement is stay skeptical of the rally and he cites bad numbers as well as history. He also suggests that growth will be anemic regardless of whether this is the rally or not... so you'll see a rally follwed by a plateau. If you believe this, this changes your short term trading and mid term investment plan. In short terms, you don't have much benefit of holding, but lots of downside if its a false rally. In mid terms, you catch the rally theoretically, but have anemic growth after that meaning you should probably find a safer investment if you're lookign for mid term gains.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby kiryan » Fri Apr 10, 2009 9:30 pm

Scary Ragorn. WFC shocked the markets. If another bank suggests better than expected results you are going to get killed.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Sat Apr 11, 2009 5:12 am

Yeah I'm on pins and needles... we'll see what Monday brings.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Mon Apr 13, 2009 2:27 pm

Yep, I got slaughtered today. Sold out for a big loss, and will see what Citigroup does tomorrow before I step back in.

I took a risk and got burned... such is life :)
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Mon Apr 13, 2009 2:42 pm

And see, this is just my luck.

I watched FAZ plummet from 10.80 premarket today all the way down to 9.60. I hit my sell order at 9.60, and it processed at 9.53. That was 15 minutes ago.

It is now trading at 10.10.

I have a history of hitting the buy/sell button at what turns out to be the absolute worst possible moment. It's very frustrating to be trading in this market because prices jump and rebound with no logic or reason. Sometimes it feels like I'm making a good decision, only to watch the entire market do an unpredictable 180 with no catalyst.

I'm still expecting this rally to turn with Citigroup's earnings report, I just felt like I had to stem the tide of losses... turns out I should have had a slightly tougher skin.

Ah well.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Corth » Mon Apr 13, 2009 3:13 pm

Or it easily could have dumped another buck or two. Attempting to time the market is a complete crapshoot.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth

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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Mon Apr 13, 2009 3:27 pm

Pretty much. My attitude in the current market is one of managing risk. I'm not buying and selling stocks, I'm buying and selling risks. If I sink $1000 into a financial stock, what I'm really telling myself is that I believe that the chance this stock will rise in the short term is greater than 50%. I might have been right about that... maybe the chance for it to rise was greater than 50%, but I got unlucky and it dropped anyway.

It's literally the same mindset I use when playing poker. When I push all in with pocket Aces, I'm betting that I have a greater-than-50% of winning the pot. Sometimes I push all in with a solid hand and still lose. But in today's market, just as in poker, just because you lose doesn't mean you made a bad call. Skill is setting the percentages in your favor and massaging the numbers.

I got killed today. I got out because the ETF hit my comfort floor... 9.60 was the cutoff price I set for myself to get out. However, I chose that cutoff price because that's the price at which I would have given back all the profit I made on UYG last week. So even though I got punched in the balls today, I still broke even for the month.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby kiryan » Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:59 pm

I thought it was a bad bet on Friday. Too much hope in the air.

I think theres a better than 50% chance Financial stocks will be down after the results. I think WFC set the bar too high and too early and I don't think anyone else will post such favorable results.

I place one huge caveat on this... I don't fully understand how the change to the accounting "mark to market" magic will affect results at the biggest banks. They could end up reporting monster #s if the magic is good enough. The companies most likely to have benefitted from the changes would be the more important ones like Citigroup, BoA, Goldman, Freddie/Fannie ect...
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Mon Apr 13, 2009 6:30 pm

In hindsight, I agree with you... it was a bad bet on Friday. If I could take it back, I'd probably have waited until today to push money in... but then again, I could say the same thing again tomorrow :)

FAZ got as high as 10.55 at midday, which signalled a stall in the financials. Now it's back down to 9.60, as the financial stocks continue their meteoric rise. I'm still expecting C to post dismal results on Friday. The question is how to best take advantage.

Still kicking myself for not buying BAC at $3.00. But then again, who knew at the time what the future held?
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Mon Apr 13, 2009 6:33 pm

Ragorn wrote:In hindsight, I agree with you... it was a bad bet on Friday. If I could take it back, I'd probably have waited until today to push money in... but then again, I could say the same thing again tomorrow :)

FAZ got as high as 10.55 at midday, which signalled a stall in the financials. Now it's back down to 9.60, as the financial stocks continue their meteoric rise. I'm still expecting C to post dismal results on Friday. The question is how to best take advantage.

Still kicking myself for not buying BAC at $3.00. But then again, who knew at the time what the future held?


Meteoric rise?

WFC 19.31 -0.31 (-1.56%)

Am I missing the sarcasm or just looking at the wrong stock?
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby kiryan » Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:08 pm

I think he's referring to the broader trend in the financial sector over the past few weeks.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:28 pm

You're looking at the wrong stock.

BAC 10.94 +1.39 (14.56%) 70.07B
C 3.72 +0.68 (22.37%) 20.51B

BAC is Bank of America, C is Citigroup. WFC has topped out, because THEY are the ones who announced their earnings... WFC is a known quantity. BAC and C are spiraling upwards on the hope that they can match WFC's sunny disposition. I doubt they will.

FAZ is now posting at 9.33. So according to the data at 3:27pm today, my initial gamble to buy FAZ was a bust, but my decision to sell at 9.60 was well advised after all.

I almost want to buy back into FAZ later this week in hopes of capturing a poor earnings report from Citigroup. I haven't decided what my plan is going to be yet, need to do a LOT of research tonight.
- Ragorn
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Mon Apr 13, 2009 8:03 pm

Ragorn wrote:You're looking at the wrong stock.

BAC 10.94 +1.39 (14.56%) 70.07B
C 3.72 +0.68 (22.37%) 20.51B

BAC is Bank of America, C is Citigroup. WFC has topped out, because THEY are the ones who announced their earnings... WFC is a known quantity. BAC and C are spiraling upwards on the hope that they can match WFC's sunny disposition. I doubt they will.

FAZ is now posting at 9.33. So according to the data at 3:27pm today, my initial gamble to buy FAZ was a bust, but my decision to sell at 9.60 was well advised after all.

I almost want to buy back into FAZ later this week in hopes of capturing a poor earnings report from Citigroup. I haven't decided what my plan is going to be yet, need to do a LOT of research tonight.



So when do BAC and C announce their earnings? Just whenever they feel like?

Wondering how long they'll climb, since Citigroup is so damn cheap right now I could probably do pretty well with my meager available cash...
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby kiryan » Mon Apr 13, 2009 9:10 pm

Out of all the banking behemoths, Citigroup is probably the weakest, the most exposed. However, I don't think the government will allow Citigroup to fail and send us through another 6 months of destroyed investor confidence.

The changes to "mark to market" are a clear indicator of this. They'll ease capital requirements and everything else they have to to keep another major bank from failing.

Goldman just reported a large profit.. a day early. Boy pressure will be on at Citigroup and Bank of America. I'm tempted to short citigroup, I think they will disappoint... but I'm not going to.

one interesting thing though is where are the profits coming from... interest rate spreads basically, the difference between what the charge in interest and what they borrow at. Of course this makes perfect sense since the government is loaning money to banks as cheap as they can. Remember how the market kept rallying 1000 points every time the fed cut the rates (till they hit 0). Government is literally creating profits for these guys.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Tue Apr 14, 2009 1:13 am

C announces on Friday, BAC on Monday.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Fri Apr 17, 2009 1:38 pm

Ok, so both Citigroup and GE reported better than expected earnings... which I thought was supposed to be a good thing as far as investors were concerned. For some reason GE is taking a nosedive though, while Citigroup (so far, and yes I know trading's only been open 7 minutes) is taking a slow walk down the hill.

Am I missing something?

Ok, I should rephrase that... I'm missing lots of things. What am I missing?
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Fri Apr 17, 2009 2:15 pm

Prices on these stocks have been increasing wildly for the past week (see the "meteoric climb" I mentioned earlier). The stocks are widely considered to be overvalued, and what's happening today is, people are reacting to the good news by selling off their holdings and taking their profits. That's causing prices to decline rather than improve.

This is one of the many reasons that "company profits" doesn't always equal "higher share price."

I think it's hilarious that Citigroup announced better-than-expected results, and the stock is still down 6%. My plan for this weekend was to buy into that Financial Bear ETF I talked about before to capitalize on the dip in financials I expect over the weekend. Early next week, when BAC and C have devalued back to reasonable prices, I'm going to sell the ETF and buy actual shares of both companies, which I plan to hold onto for a while.

I got burned real bad with FAZ this week and last, so I'm hoping to limp back into the game and take some profits back.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Corth » Fri Apr 17, 2009 2:16 pm

Could be a zillion different things. There is no cause ---> effect relationship in the stock market. You might expect it to go up on good news.. but perhaps some large investors were waiting for good news as an opportunity to reduce their holdings. Who knows..

Its options expiration Friday. Look up "max pain theory" for another possible explanation.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Mon Apr 20, 2009 5:23 pm

GO FAZ
GO FAZ
IT'S YA BIRTHDAY
GO FAZ

FAZ 11.00 +2.10 (23.60%)

Made back all the money I lost on FAZ last week, plus extra. I'm now back to being up 8% on the month.

I think this week is going to be very good for me. I'm going to keep a 4% t-stop on FAZ to retain my profits. What that means is, if at any time, the stock price drops 4% (like from 11.00 to 10.56), it sells all my holdings immediately and automatically. I'm thinking this slide is going to last at least two or three days, and when we start seeing green again, I'm going to shove into BAC and C to try to ride the next wave upwards.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Mon Apr 20, 2009 5:29 pm

Quiet you.

*holding C until it turns around*

I'm about as good at timing the market as Corth is.

Also, I have to keep reminding myself I bought GE as a long term investment.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Mon Apr 20, 2009 7:54 pm

FAZ got as high as 11.30 and took a big dip down at 3:30. If it were any other time of the day, I would have let that dip slide without selling... but this stock has a history of moving VERY quickly in the last 30 minutes of trading each day, and I didn't want 8 hours of profits to be wiped out in 15 minutes. The dip triggered my stop-loss at $11.05, leaving me a 10.5% profit on the day.

Of course, it's $11.42 right now, but oh well... I got my cut, and I'm VERY happy to have recovered my losses.

Looking forward to jamming money into BAC/C this week. I'm not going to buy tonight, because I don't have a firm sense of what tomorrow is going to look like... I have a feeling it may be another down day, but I'm not sure. See my poker analogy... I THINK the other guy is bluffing, but I'm not sure enough to push all my chips into the middle of the table on this one. Going to hold cash tonight and see what color the board is when I get to work tomorrow. Hoping for another red day so I can get into the banks on the cheap on Wednesday.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Tue Apr 21, 2009 4:53 pm

Well I woke up today and FAZ was trading $13.65 in pre-market... I almost started weeping. On the way into work, I kept telling myself that my strategy was sound, and that I should enjoy my profit. I bought Activision/Blizzard for 10.00 in December, one day later it was 11.03, and I didn't sell because I was greedy... and then it plunged to 8.36 two days later and it never recovered. I kept remembering that and telling myself that I was smart to cash out because today would be very risky on either side.

Long story short, FAZ was $12.70 when I got to work (and falling fast). At this moment, it's trading at $10.04. I'm not gonna lie... it feels really good to be vindicated.

My strategy coming into today's market was to wait and see if BAC and C were going to continue their slides, or if they were going to peek green. Both stock started down ~6% this morning, so I opened the ticker and kept half an eye on it. From 10:30-11:00am there was a marked upswing in all of the financials and Citigroup crept over the break-even point, so at 10:50, I bought equal stakes into Bank of America and Citigroup.

So far, I'm very pleased with the results, to the tune of +6.2% in two hours.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:05 am

By the way, let me get this out there right now, for anyone following this thread:

DO NOT PUT ANY MONEY INTO FAZ.

FAZ is a total scam. If you look at the trendline from January 1st through today, it's a sharp downward slant. This ETF is going nowhere fast. The reason that I invest in it is because it's a very quick and dirty way to make money in the very short term when you believe a large slide is imminent. Any money you put into this stock for more than 48 hours is going to decay, and you're never going to get a return on your investment.

By their names, it seems like FAS and FAZ are opposites. They aren't. FAS has maintained a nice ebb and flow over the past couple months, rising and falling with the financial market. FAZ has hit some very abrupt and impressive spikes, but the trend is straight into the ground. If you chart each time FAS hit $8 since January 1st, and compare the FAZ price on the same day, you'll see that the FAZ price gets successively lower every time FAS crosses the $8 threshold. FAS may rise to $10, fall to $4, and then rise again in a couple months. By that time, FAZ will be trading for pennies.

As always, tomorrow could prove me completely wrong about this. But just to be safe, I'm focused on buying actual stocks for the moment rather than ETFs.

Here's hoping BAC and C trend upwards tomorrow... Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are both announcing earnings before market open tomorrow, so we're going to see movement in one direction or another. Hope it's up :)
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Corth » Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:41 am

Sounds like you should short FAZ then for a long term trade...
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Wed Apr 22, 2009 1:33 pm

Possibly!

This morning is down, we'll see how the afternoon goes :)
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:57 pm

I'm out of BAC @8.83. I bought in at 7.96, so that's a tidy 11% profit. I sold out because BAC peaked in the low 9s early Wednesday, but's had a REALLY hard time climbing back up over 8.80 since then. Tomorrow, the government announces the results of the stress test, and I'd much rather stow away a quick 11% profit than take a gamble on how the market is going to react to the news.

I do still own 1000 shares of Citigroup that I bought at 3.12 (it's currently 3.16). I bought C too late into the upswing on Monday, and I missed the chance to get a great price like I did with BAC. But eh, I'll hold my C position through tomorrow and see what happens.

Dug: I made my car payment this week ;)
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:18 pm

Ragorn wrote:I bought C too late into the upswing on Monday,



YOU bought too late? I bought at 4.37, thinking it would keep going up. Actually, I think that was last week...

Waiting it out now...
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Corth » Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:03 pm

Heh I bought 1080 shares of C at $1.32 and sold them between $2.50 and $2.75.

It was essentially going to the casino. The only logic I had behind it was that the government was backing C so I may as well go for the ride. Honestly, buying it at $4.37 like Sarvis did makes just as much or little sense as when I bought it at $1.32. Its a complete black box.

I think the financial sector is going to turn pretty nasty within the next few weeks. This bear market rally is starting to lose steam. Be careful longs.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:25 pm

Corth wrote:Heh I bought 1080 shares of C at $1.32 and sold them between $2.50 and $2.75.

It was essentially going to the casino. The only logic I had behind it was that the government was backing C so I may as well go for the ride. Honestly, buying it at $4.37 like Sarvis did makes just as much or little sense as when I bought it at $1.32. Its a complete black box.

I think the financial sector is going to turn pretty nasty within the next few weeks. This bear market rally is starting to lose steam. Be careful longs.


I had slightly more logic going. The earning reports were coming up, and there was a little good news floating around about the financial sector... so I figured this was the beginning of people buying up a bunch of shares running up to the earnings report. I was going to sell right after that, but it came out sooner than I thought and by the time I caught up the stock was already way down... :(
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Corth » Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:45 pm

I would strongly disagree that your logic was any better. Without knowing what assets C owns, and we don't, the best anyone can do is guess what its worth. Also.. as a sentiment/momentum play, keep in mind the famous wall street dictum "Buy the rumor, sell the news". These past few weeks of better than expected news have been a great opportunity to sell financials, not buy. You will see.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:44 am

Corth wrote:I would strongly disagree that your logic was any better.



I didn't say better, I said more. :P
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:05 am

Corth wrote:Heh I bought 1080 shares of C at $1.32 and sold them between $2.50 and $2.75.

It was essentially going to the casino.

Yeah, I didn't go in at $1.3x because I had just watched AIG tank from $1.40 to under 55 cents in a couple weeks. Wasn't worth pulling the handle for me.

I think the financial sector is going to turn pretty nasty within the next few weeks. This bear market rally is starting to lose steam. Be careful longs.

I think I agree. I'm keeping my assets safe, avoiding long plays... I'd planned to go BAC and C long, but y'know, I just don't see the value in it right now. There's too much volatility, I may as well play the waves and take my money now.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Kifle » Fri Apr 24, 2009 5:35 am

How much are you banking from this on average per day, Rags? Just curious.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Fri Apr 24, 2009 11:56 am

It's kind of hard to break it down by day, because you can't have a set idea of when you want to buy and sell. I've also made two horrible trades since I started day trading that put me back thousands of dollars each.

Recently, I've had equal shares of good insight and sheer dumb luck. On March 1st, I had about $6750 in my trading account. Today I have about $7800. If I hadn't taken a bath to the tune of -$1100 on FAZ last week, I'd be in really good shape :) But I really can't argue with a 15% profit in the span of two months.
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:04 pm

Sarvis wrote:I had slightly more logic going. The earning reports were coming up, and there was a little good news floating around about the financial sector... so I figured this was the beginning of people buying up a bunch of shares running up to the earnings report. I was going to sell right after that, but it came out sooner than I thought and by the time I caught up the stock was already way down... :(

Let me make a knee-jerk suggestion that might help you as you're just getting started.

If a stock's price is up for the day, you should have a pretty good reason for buying it. If it's up, and it was up yesterday, you should have a solid reason for buying it. If it's been up three days in a row, you better have a DAMN good reason for buying it :)

I try to make most of my purchases on red days, when the price is down for the day. Buy low, sell high... you buy when it looks like the market is crashing, and you sell when it looks like the market is surging. Citigroup had been up for five or six straight days last Thursday, which was a pretty good indicator (in today's climate anyway) that it was due for a pullback.
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Fri Apr 24, 2009 2:00 pm

Ok, I sold out of Citigroup this morning for essentially no gain or loss. I've been holding this stock for three days, and it hasn't made any significant motion in either direction. Money left in a stagnant stock is a constant risk in this economy, so I'd rather take the cash back and put it in something productive than leave it in Citi.
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Fri Apr 24, 2009 2:26 pm

Ragorn wrote:
Sarvis wrote:I had slightly more logic going. The earning reports were coming up, and there was a little good news floating around about the financial sector... so I figured this was the beginning of people buying up a bunch of shares running up to the earnings report. I was going to sell right after that, but it came out sooner than I thought and by the time I caught up the stock was already way down... :(

Let me make a knee-jerk suggestion that might help you as you're just getting started.

If a stock's price is up for the day, you should have a pretty good reason for buying it. If it's up, and it was up yesterday, you should have a solid reason for buying it. If it's been up three days in a row, you better have a DAMN good reason for buying it :)

I try to make most of my purchases on red days, when the price is down for the day. Buy low, sell high... you buy when it looks like the market is crashing, and you sell when it looks like the market is surging. Citigroup had been up for five or six straight days last Thursday, which was a pretty good indicator (in today's climate anyway) that it was due for a pullback.


Yeah, this is the second time I bought a stock on the upswing and it started going down right after. I guess I figured if it was going up it would keep doing so. Bleh.

Last time I rode it out for a few months and it eventually came back up, and I made a tiny profit... so I'll probably do the same now. Let's just hope Citibank doesn't die a horrible death in the next few weeks. ;)

EDIT: I was actually thinking about buying Activision Blizzard... it's been down for the last few days and is going up today. D'OH!
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Ragorn » Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:48 pm

ATVI is a decent buy and hold stock... they've proven that they're recession-proof, and their chart has been treading upward slowly but steadily since Jan 1st. It's also not a very volatile stock, it pretty much hangs out between the low 10s and high 10s. Just make sure you find a good entry point... I wouldn't buy in any higher than about 10.10.

ATVI isn't a very good day trading stock, because of its lack of volatility. If you're looking for high risk, high reward, then it's banks all the way.

And of course, all it took for BAC to jump over $9 was for me to say "BAC can't seem to break 8.80." Oh well, got my profit, and I have no risk exposure right now. Going to be a happy weekend :)
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Sarvis » Fri Apr 24, 2009 5:12 pm

Ragorn wrote:ATVI is a decent buy and hold stock... they've proven that they're recession-proof, and their chart has been treading upward slowly but steadily since Jan 1st. It's also not a very volatile stock, it pretty much hangs out between the low 10s and high 10s. Just make sure you find a good entry point... I wouldn't buy in any higher than about 10.10.

ATVI isn't a very good day trading stock, because of its lack of volatility. If you're looking for high risk, high reward, then it's banks all the way.

And of course, all it took for BAC to jump over $9 was for me to say "BAC can't seem to break 8.80." Oh well, got my profit, and I have no risk exposure right now. Going to be a happy weekend :)



Hmm.

Citibank can't seem to break $5.
<a href="http://www.code-haven.com">Code Haven</a> - For all your programming needs.

I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write. - Some Guy Who Paraphrased Voltaire
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Re: Wells Fargo

Postby Corth » Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:57 pm

The trick is having Ragorn say it. Now that you messed everything up C will undoubtedly be in receivership by the end of the weekend.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



Goddamned slippery mage.

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