Stock trading thread

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fobble
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:28 pm

Corth already mentioned tax table depends on how much withdraw. What I am going to mention through is while tax rates go higher not lower (I'm going to be very surprised if tax is lower when I retire than now) and I'm certainly for Roth IRA. I contribute to Roth IRA as well as 401K...it all depends on each individual's finances are structured and how the individual's retirement plan.

It's all about opportunity cost right. If you pay taxes now, likely you'll avoid higher taxes you pay later (only if you were not able to structure your retirement to minimize tax cost). But if the taxes you don't pay now, provides with better opportunity at good return. You need to think about the opportunity cost.

In example I used, I believe saving of $ 3,258 in tax will provide good return in period of say 20 years rather than paying the taxes now upfront. Once again though, this is different for everyone.

In my personal case, socking money away to drop to lower tax table and putting money into Traditional IRA is not a good decision for me. Taxes I'd save is not much and even if I compound the savings in period of 40 years. I'm still better off paying taxes now. Hence I put money into Roth IRA, put in enough into 401K to get the maximum employee match, and make trades. So far if things continue the way they are, I'll be moving up to higher tax table this year.
Last edited by fobble on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:30 pm

Sarvis wrote:
fobble wrote:I just dumped all my stock holdings.

My forecast is that with unemployment data was worse than expected and non-farm payroll is scheduled for Sept 4th release. I believe that report is going to worse than expected as well and if that's the case there should be dip. Doing my profit taking now and going to wait it out.

Took loss on FAS but thanks to C brought me into positive gains on overall.


This may have been bad timing... should have waited until the end of the day.

Then again, if I'd known that for sure I would have bought some when I woke up this morning. :(


Yes my timing was off. Good thing is I still made money so I can't really complain.

Edit: Yup my timing was definitely way off. I dumped C at 4.25 and FAS at 70.50? 70.60?
Last edited by fobble on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:01 pm

All things being equal, retired people usually are in a lower tax bracket because they make less income. However, I think your point may be that taxation levels, in general, are likely to rise. I can't say I disagree with that. At some point we will have to pay for these bailouts. Its pretty difficult to tell the future, but I wouldn't argue with someone who pays tax on retirement contributions now for the specific reason of avoiding anticipated higher taxation rates in the future.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth

Goddamned slippery mage.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:22 pm

There is one factor in regards to retirement that I don't know what number to put to and scares me the most. That factor is medical cost. Anyhoo...I think taxes in US is frigging complicated.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:18 am

Put the # at $0.00. The baby boomers have not saved anything, they are getting old, and they vote.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



Goddamned slippery mage.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:08 pm

Man had i the balls to buy CIT when I said I would and held on, I'd be up 18-20%. Did buy C at 4.80 and sell off at 5.08. As of today, I'm finally 100% fully recovered from my loss 10/2007 till early 2009.

Personally, recent market trends in financial sector further strengthened my belief that correction is going to come shortly around the corner quite violently.

Edit: ...and CIT after hour trading is still going up. Definitely 20-25% return.
Last edited by fobble on Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ragorn
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:11 pm

I bought into FAS at a bad price point this week. It opened 4% up on Monday, and I bought in at the best possible time in the morning... price almost immediately shot up another 2% or so. Then it crashed down 8% and hasn't fully recovered. But I held, god dammit, rather than sell out, be scared to buy back in, and miss the recovery. And as of today's close, I'm a couple cents off my buy-in price. A good open tomorrow will put me back in the black.

Just a shame I missed all the volatility this week because I was holding at $80.08.
- Ragorn
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Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:03 pm

FAS at 80.35 now, peaked at 82.31. If you sold, you still made money! More money is better than no money.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:24 pm

I didn't, it peaked at 82.31 at 9:30:01 this morning, and I wasn't expecting the open to be today's high. I'm getting margin called today so I need to sell, so I'm going to try to find a profit point before the end of the day to do it.

Besides, I hage holding FAS over the weekend... after the 11% loss two weeks ago, it's just too brutal.
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:45 pm

Hey guys, I been discussing topic of recovery and opportunities in equity market with my buddies. All of my buddies and myself work in sales, finance, and shipping & logistics.

1. While sales volume and actual deals are not increasing, the interest is getting bigger and more inquiries do come through.
2. More inventory being shipped around. Probably largely to replenish the low inventory companies had that they sold.
3. Companies are running lean because they cut costs in forms of layoff and most likely round of layoff is finished unless economy really hits south.

The consensus amongst my friends seems to be that there is some recovery and signs of further recovery, albeit slow, fragile, and rocky path and definitely corrections along the way. Based on that general consensus amongst my friends is that in 2-3 years equity market will make recovery, may be not full recovery to pre-great recession level but close enough. Once equity market recovers and becomes more stabilized. The window for opportunity in current volatility will be gone since investors won't see frequent large swings to take advantage of the price gap for short-term and buying at beaten down price for long-term.

As of now, I personally think that window of opportunity from equity market will shrink for small investors like ourselves as equity market stabilizes and residential real estate will be next in-line (shortly before equity market stabilize) to begin to make some traction.

Now my questions to you guys is...
1. What are your thoughts about equity market recovery
2. What are your thoughts on equity market stabilizing means less opportunity for good returns for small investors.
3. What do you think about residential real estate market on when they would begin to make some real traction.

When I mean traction, recently existing home sales have gone up. Due to number of looming additional foreclosures and housing in supply. Price on residential real estate won't really begin to go up overall steadily. Now this is disregarding location factor since locations varies too much and I refer to residential real estate market in USA overall.

I'm interested in hearing your views and your background for perspectives.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:40 pm

Got out today at a very slight loss. I have no faith in holding over the weekend, and I'm glad I was able to withdraw from this consistently-down-week with only minimal bruising. Of course, this only means that FAS will be 90 on Monday morning, but that's ok :)
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby kiryan » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:15 pm

The only equity I would bet on long term is oil, rare earth metals and radioactive metals (not sure there is a market for this). I think Oil is way over priced right now but eventually I don't see how it can't go back to $100 a barrel. I don't know enough about the rare earth markets, but this is the stuff that is required in so many high tech applications and there seems to be a very limited supply in the US and world wide.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Sat Aug 29, 2009 2:42 am

kiryan wrote:I don't know enough about the rare earth markets, but this is the stuff that is required in so many high tech applications and there seems to be a very limited supply in the US and world wide.


I have no idea on rare raw materials either. What I do know is that it doesn't even have to be rare raw materials to be quite profitable. Copper and Iron took a dive but it's recovered quite a bit. China and Australia been making some moves. Copper ETF JJC is good example, it made great recovery since the dive.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Sat Aug 29, 2009 2:48 am

Ragorn wrote:Got out today at a very slight loss. I have no faith in holding over the weekend, and I'm glad I was able to withdraw from this consistently-down-week with only minimal bruising. Of course, this only means that FAS will be 90 on Monday morning, but that's ok :)


I'm glad you were take a small loss.

I went back in and holding C right now and I may regret doing that. My gut instincts tell me that the Sept 4th non-farm payroll report will be bad and Sept is historically low/sell-off month as investors unload before they go on vacation and adjust their portfolio after they return. Plus if CIT fails it'll be leading the charge for correction and my money will be tied up.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Wed Oct 14, 2009 3:00 pm

So how have all of you been doing in the market for past 2 months and now?
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Sarvis » Wed Oct 14, 2009 3:05 pm

I broke even one day due to uncertainty and bad timing... otherwise, I haven't really been doing anything.

FAS went up 5% in pre-market this morning though... which is pretty insane.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Wed Oct 14, 2009 3:07 pm

The Reaper caught up to me. I put cash in midway through the huge downturn in early September, planning to invest in the dip and ride it into recovery. However, three things happened:

1) The price continued to plunge rapidly after where I bought in.
2) Ameritrade's website flaked out due to the incredibly high volume of trades that day. By the time I could log in, my investment was down 7-8%. Since I was on margin, that was a ton of money.
3) I resolved to hold, since I knew the dip would be temporary. Of course, I got margin called at the bottom, and had to cash out at the worst possible point.

A very emotionally devastating day for me. I haven't invested since then, and won't until I can remove the emotions from trading again. I didn't get ruined or anything, but I got rattled enough that I didn't trust my ability to be objective for a while after that.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:08 pm

Sarvis,
Doing nothing is sometimes a good move via conserving cash.

Ragorn,
That sucks man. Sorry to hear that, especially fact that Website flaked out.

Corth,
How are you doing on your investments?

As for me, I haven't made any major gain or loss on my investment choices. Still holding to C and it's been up & down. As for FAS and FAZ, I got burned a little bit playing with it so it's in my watch but do not play list. I switched to hold and planning to shuffle the portfolio in mid or late Q1 after the holidays are over. Unless something exciting happens and makes me want to jump in. Sidenote, I am so glad I didn't play CIT. I definitely don't have balls for that.

In meanwhile, made some short-term hold investment choices ACF and BRK-B. Hopefully they will pay out in 4-6 month period. Good luck ya'all.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Sarvis » Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:04 pm

fobble wrote:As for FAS and FAZ, I got burned a little bit playing with it so it's in my watch but do not play list.


The funny thing is I've been relatively good at guessing what was going to happen. I just don't have confidence in my guesses...
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Nokie » Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:25 pm

What do you think of this strategy?

When the VIX index (VXX.ID - 'iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index') makes a NEW 15 day low AND closes ABOVE its open, it signals a sell in the market
(for a buy indication: the VIX makes a new 15 day HIGH AND closes BELOW its open)

A sell signal would suggest that you go long on QID (ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF))

A buy signal would suggest that you go long on QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ (ETF))
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:07 pm

Nokie wrote:What do you think of this strategy?

When the VIX index (VXX.ID - 'iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index') makes a NEW 15 day low AND closes ABOVE its open, it signals a sell in the market
(for a buy indication: the VIX makes a new 15 day HIGH AND closes BELOW its open)

A sell signal would suggest that you go long on QID (ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF))

A buy signal would suggest that you go long on QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ (ETF))


I've never heard of the index or the ETFs you mentioned so I can't comment specifically to answer your question. What I can say though is why don't you try a research of your strat. If what you think of VIX index is true (a solidly reliable indicator of market mood). Why don't you apply this strat and follow it for certain period of time. For example, let's say you start with imaginary $ 10,000 or whatever number you want to use and then apply your strat to it. Pretend it's real then trade and track it on paper. After certain period of time you should have an idea whether your idea of strat is reliable or not for you. If you think it's reliable enough for you then go open an account and start trading. Actually you can open an account and be ready to trade ahead of time while you are doing this research if you wish. I also recommend you look into those two ETFs deeper as well as looking for alternatives.

Personally investment strat you mentioned is too risky for and too short term for me. But that is just me, my investment style, and my stomach for risk. I'm a big wuss when it comes to risks so I take a pretty conservative approach.

I'm basing this on assumption that you will be buying & selling the same day then repeat as your indicator tells you so to take profit in slices. Lastly this is just my opinion and what may not work for me may work for you. As well as what is comfortable to you may be not to me due to our differences.

Good luck!
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Nokie » Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:22 pm

It's been pretty successful for me so far (knock on wood):

10-14: bought some QID @ $22.00
10-16: sold some QID @ $22.45
resulting in a 2.05% return in 4 days

10-19 : bought some QID @ $22.00
10-27 : sold half of QID @ $22.70
10-28 : sold the other half of QID @ $23.41
resulting in a 4.80% return in 9 days

11-02: bought some QLD @ $48.20
11-05 : sold some QLD @ $50.34
resulting in a 4.44% return in 3 days
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:15 am

These things can work for a while and then get arbitraged away. If you figure out something like that which works then keep it to yourself. Otherwise a few people on here will start doing it.. and tell a few friends, who tell a few friends, and then your edge goes poof as demand increases for what you are looking to buy under those circumstances, increasing its price and decreasing profits until the strategy becomes moot.

Btw - I'm not surprised that you would look for an edge in such a manner. I remember how you used to keep stats on mud stuff. That type of mentality goes a long way towards finding succesful investment schemes.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Fri Nov 20, 2009 2:55 am

Ragorn wrote:Want to bet a title change that MS will be over $30 on December 1st, 2009? :)


The odds are good I am going to lose this bet. Can't wait to see what Ragorn comes up with. :)
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby fobble » Fri Nov 20, 2009 7:25 am

Market is little rocky but been doing too good ahead of economy in my view. I do understand stock market is generally forerunner of how real economy does but I think there will be a dip coming.

No indicators, no scientific data or stats. Just my instinct or pure speculation whichever you want to call it. I noticed there is much less doomsayer and generally most experts on mass media (bloomberg, cable tv, etc.) are talking about how much the market has regained since it's drop off the cliff and that future is positive. When majority think it's going good and economic outlook is positive, it's time for me to bail.

I liquidated most of stock holdings and doing day trade or sitting out most of time now. Looking back, I couldn't stick with my 4-6 month for BRK.B and ACF. I actually sold 'em 2 week ago and made short play for CVS after their price drop. I think I am getting too used to and addicted to short term trading.

Good luck ya'all.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Fri Nov 20, 2009 12:55 pm

Corth wrote:
Ragorn wrote:Want to bet a title change that MS will be over $30 on December 1st, 2009? :)


The odds are good I am going to lose this bet. Can't wait to see what Ragorn comes up with. :)

Curses, I was hoping you forgot ;)
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:18 am

It may end up being a photo finish.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Mon Nov 30, 2009 3:44 pm

Could be close :) I'm expecting an upward correction today to account for the two -150 days last week, but there's the possibility that something could happen today or tomorrow.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:18 pm

I don't log in much these days, what should we make Corth's title? :)
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Kifle » Wed Dec 02, 2009 4:27 am

AIG... they took a huge gamble and lost big. But will somebody bail Corth out?
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:02 am

Feh!
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:45 pm

So, what's my name?
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:45 pm

Oh! Right, I need to log in tonight and entitlate you.

I'm thinking - Bailout Required -
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:46 pm

Oh, by the way. I've gotten over the emotional asskicking I took a couple months back. I'm in BAC long at around $16, and I'm very timidly stepping into FAS for day trades. I picked up $10k at the closing crash yesterday, and sold it this morning for +4.8%. A good start.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:15 pm

It's not far from the truth after my recent home purchase.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Kifle » Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:56 pm

I've been talking with a guy at work, and he was telling me he expects WaMu to make him a good deal of money. What's the word on this stock? I thought they were going through a bankruptcy.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Sat Dec 05, 2009 7:00 am

Wamu got siezed by the FDIC and it's assets were sold to Chase. All the Wamu branches are becoming Chase brances I believe.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Oghma » Sun Dec 06, 2009 5:49 am

Ragorn wrote:Oh! Right, I need to log in tonight and entitlate you.

I'm thinking - Bailout Required -


His title is more accurate than you know.

Since you rarely log in, and Corth rarely checks his assoc motd, I figured I'd let you know here.

I've exhausted Elder's bank account, and if by Jan 1 it doesn't have the requisite amount of platinum required for next month's dues, it'll be disbanded.

Let me know if you have any questions.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Mon Dec 07, 2009 3:07 pm

Rofl. This is some sort of underhanded trick to force us out of retirement, isn't it? :)

Can anyone spare some copper? :)
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Ragorn » Mon Dec 07, 2009 3:14 pm

That's hilarious. I'll make a note to myself to log in tonight. Not that I can do anything about it, since I'm level 20, but I'll at least title Corth appropriately.
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Re: Stock trading thread

Postby Corth » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:18 pm

I already titled myself but feel free to change it however you want.

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