Where's kiryan today?

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Ragorn
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Where's kiryan today?

Postby Ragorn » Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:17 pm

Unemployement down to 9.4%, AIG reporting a profit, financial market surging, DOW on its way to 10,000... where's kiryan with a link about how well the Obama Adminstration is doing at restoring our economy?
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Corth » Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:25 pm

Shit man.. you just totally jinxed the entire economy!

Look you throw trillions of dollars into an economy you will see a spike. That money has to be paid back at the cost of future economic growth. Nothing goes straight up or straight down, it is still my contention that the US government cannot do anything at all to prevent a very large scale prolonged slump verging on depression.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth

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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Sarvis » Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:31 pm

Corth wrote:Shit man.. you just totally jinxed the entire economy!

Look you throw trillions of dollars into an economy you will see a spike. That money has to be paid back at the cost of future economic growth. Nothing goes straight up or straight down, it is still my contention that the US government cannot do anything at all to prevent a very large scale prolonged slump verging on depression.


Sure, it has to be paid back at the cost of future economic growth. However, in the future the economic growth will probably be strong enough to handle it. So we spike now, yes. That keeps us from sinking into depression, and hopefully the economy recovers a little quicker.

Sure, in 20 years we won't be growing as fast as we could have (assuming we have leadership who actually tries to pay balance our budget *coughdemocratscough*) but we'll still be growing, and we won't be trying to recover from a depression.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Desirsar » Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:21 pm

"Balancing" the budget is easy when you don't get into the silly line of thinking that most Americans have that the government should try to pay everything back and reduce the national debt to zero in a single year. Do you pay your house or car loans off in a single year? No, you balance the interest and payments against your income over a longer period. Of course, getting politicians in any party to even attempt this is like pulling teeth with piano wire and a monster truck...
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby kiryan » Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:51 pm

Working my ass off, havent had time to keep up with the market.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Ragorn » Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:51 pm

Corth wrote:Shit man.. you just totally jinxed the entire economy!

Look you throw trillions of dollars into an economy you will see a spike. That money has to be paid back at the cost of future economic growth. Nothing goes straight up or straight down, it is still my contention that the US government cannot do anything at all to prevent a very large scale prolonged slump verging on depression.

That's ok, I got my money this week, screw the rest of ya!

Perhaps. It's nice to see the TARP banks starting to repay their loans, and even suckers like AIG turning profitable.

I don't think we're out of this, but I think the bottom is behind us.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Corth » Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:48 pm

I'll go on record predicting the stock market will make deeper bottoms.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby kiryan » Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:02 pm

I'll add this about unemployment.

Just last week they were talking about people who were about to lose their extended unemployment benefits. I believe that the unemployment #s only count people on unemployment (and do not count college graduates who are now looking for jobs but weren't before or people who weren't working that are looking for jobs now)... On the other hand, this means the rate is overstated compared to the past because the extension kept people on unemployment that should've fallen off.

Here is a # you can count on though. 1 billion on cash for clunkers in 1 week? 2 more in the chute.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Kifle » Sat Aug 08, 2009 12:06 am

kiryan wrote:I'll add this about unemployment.

Just last week they were talking about people who were about to lose their extended unemployment benefits. I believe that the unemployment #s only count people on unemployment (and do not count college graduates who are now looking for jobs but weren't before or people who weren't working that are looking for jobs now)... On the other hand, this means the rate is overstated compared to the past because the extension kept people on unemployment that should've fallen off.

Here is a # you can count on though. 1 billion on cash for clunkers in 1 week? 2 more in the chute.


Yeah, you can add 80% of college graduates into that unemployment number. Also, the unemployment numbers are heavily skewed in favor of a lower percentage due to how they are calculated. That number is probably much higher in reality.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Ragorn » Sat Aug 08, 2009 12:40 am

Regardless, it's a relative figure, and it's not like Barack Obama has suddenly radically changed the way it's calculated.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Corth » Sat Aug 08, 2009 4:03 am

You toss a trillion dollars into the economy.. there is no doubt people will be hired. Maybe we should have conjured up a little more magic and perhaps spent.. 10 trillion dollars. We can solve the world's problems that way.

BTW, note that although the unemployment rate improved from 9.5% to 9.4%, there were actually 247,000 jobs lost during the month in question. The reason the unemployment rate decreased despite such massive job losses is likely because it is taking into account people that have -given up- trying to find a job. If you aren't looking for a job, you aren't considered unemployed. This is hardly 'green shots'.. just a slowdown in the awe-inspiring rate of decline. Instead of losing 600,000 jobs its just 250,000.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby kiryan » Sat Aug 08, 2009 8:07 pm

On the other hand, I do believe in the power of wanting to believe. Who was it tha was criticized for saying that this was a recession in the minds of the American people? That isn't too far from the practical truth. My dad has spent 40 years believing the system was going to go bust... If confidence (and borrowing) come back, it will come back despite deficits and taxes and the "whole system being phony".
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Ragorn » Sun Aug 09, 2009 5:24 am

The system works, whether you believe in it or not.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Tasan » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:54 am

Corth wrote:because it is taking into account people that have -given up- trying to find a job.


Why look for a job when the democrats are willing to give you money from people who already have jobs?

Man I love liberty and the pursuit of laziness!
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Sarvis » Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:16 am

Tasan wrote:
Corth wrote:because it is taking into account people that have -given up- trying to find a job.


Why look for a job when the democrats are willing to give you money from people who already have jobs?

Man I love liberty and the pursuit of laziness!


Right, because people just _love_ subsisting.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Ragorn » Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:00 pm

Tasan wrote:
Corth wrote:because it is taking into account people that have -given up- trying to find a job.


Why look for a job when the democrats are willing to give you money from people who already have jobs?

Man I love liberty and the pursuit of laziness!

I dunno... why aren't you on welfare, if it's so fantastic?
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Corth » Tue Aug 11, 2009 2:17 pm

NY Times OP-ED. If you count people who have given up looking for a job, along with people who are working part time because they cannot find full time work, then our unemployment rate would be 19+%.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/opinion/11herbert.html?_r=1&hp

Anyone who thinks we are in the midst of a recovery is getting way ahead of him/herself. What we have seen is a slowdown in the rate of decline resulting from enormous stimulus which itself will be a drag on the economy going forward. Losing 250,000 jobs in a month might be an improvement, but it isn't a recovery.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Sarvis » Tue Aug 11, 2009 2:29 pm

Corth wrote:NY Times OP-ED. If you count people who have given up looking for a job, along with people who are working part time because they cannot find full time work, then our unemployment rate would be 19+%.


You know what's funny? The amount of time and effort liberals spent convincing conservatives of this during the Bush Presidency.

Just sayin...
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Corth » Tue Aug 11, 2009 3:23 pm

Umm, we had nowhere near as much unemployment and underemployment until fairly recently. Though the present condition is in large part Bush's fault. But whatever you were saying then (not sure what exactly you claim was said, you didn't link to anythng) is not applicable to the current 19+% rate.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Sarvis » Tue Aug 11, 2009 4:06 pm

Corth wrote:Umm, we had nowhere near as much unemployment and underemployment until fairly recently. Though the present condition is in large part Bush's fault. But whatever you were saying then (not sure what exactly you claim was said, you didn't link to anythng) is not applicable to the current 19+% rate.


The whole part about the unemployment rate not being representative of how bad things really are. I could probably find half a dozen Fark threads at least showing this, if I weren't lazy.

Not saying things aren't bad now, I just find it funny that conservatives wouldn't listen when we were saying the same thing about the unemployment rate under Bush.
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Corth » Tue Aug 11, 2009 4:19 pm

I don't know about your Fark debates.. If you had to put me on the conservative/liberal scale I would probably be much closer to the conservative end of the spectrum, and I have been saying for years that the unemployment rate is goosed.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby Sarvis » Tue Aug 11, 2009 4:22 pm

Corth wrote:I don't know about your Fark debates.. If you had to put me on the conservative/liberal scale I would probably be much closer to the conservative end of the spectrum, and I have been saying for years that the unemployment rate is goosed.


Maybe, but you're a libertarian so you basically think everything coming out of the government is goosed. :P
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Re: Where's kiryan today?

Postby fobble » Tue Aug 11, 2009 7:33 pm

Corth don't forget about furloughed workers. They do not count as unemployed either even though they essentially are not working or getting paid.

All in all, two things about unemployment.

1. Unemployment means that's much more slower our economic recovery will be.
2. Unemployment is lagging indicator of economic heath.

Personally, I'm a lot more interested in type of job growth. While it is nice to have lower unemployment rate, I think it is just as important to know what kind of jobs are held and what job sectors grew. It's great that unemployment lowered but if the person who found a job used to be Financial Advisor making USD 80-150K and now got a job X makng 50-60K...

Well it's great he or she got a job but that does not mean economy will be same as before since he or she will have helluva lot less disposal income to spend and consumer market still being the biggest chunk of our economy. It is not great. Good but not great.

Yes, it's good that unemployment lowered but what's the cost to our economy? *shrug* 1 person who was making 5 millions vs. 100 people who were making 50K a year? While the taxes and economy that 1 person who was making 5 mill does not generate enough to make up or subsidize for 100 pepole outta job... It kinda makes you wonder don't it. Considering that ton of people who are outta job are from financial and technology professionals...

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