New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

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Ragorn
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New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Ragorn » Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:18 pm

Since we're in the habit of linking economic/political news items and trying to use them to justify our political positions, I give you:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... _oJT6RLu6k

GObama! The stimulus is working! The economy is recovering! Etc, etc!

More importantly, FAS is recovering from its 3-day dip ;)
- Ragorn
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Delmair Aamoren » Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:57 pm

The sales of homes in my area have increased substantially lately as well. They weren't nearly as hard-hit by the economy as a lot of the US. Here homes at are sub 200k are FLYING off the inventory lists. Homes below 300k are selling fairly well. Homes that have a 450k pricetag and higher are still having a hard time selling. My wife and I, although not first-time home buyers, took advantage of the low interest rates, as well as the lower median home prices, to upsize our home and get to a nicer part of town.

With obamas 8k tax credit, as well as some other local programs for first time home ownership, i would conclude that in this area, efforts to stimulate the economy by home sales has been effective! The local market here anticipates a downtrend in new sales after the November deadline for the new homebuyer credit. But overall, it has done wonders on the front end. Now hopefully the lenders are being responsible enough that the monies will be collected on these loans and the government makes its money back on our rediculous property taxes!
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby kiryan » Wed Aug 26, 2009 3:46 pm

Yea that was some amazing news. I thought reappointing bernake early was genius... Keep the markets comfortable and give them some good news when things could've gone south fast due to the consumer confidence report.

Still losing lots of jobs, still have a shit ton of underwater and unperforming loans, consumer confidence still in the toilet. Also, I hardly think that sales going up a ton has anything to do with Obama (other than keeping the lenders lending), it has to do with the prices finally coming closer to inline with the market fundamentals. Lower house prices and massive concessions are driving sales.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Corth » Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:24 am

Heh - people are being given $8,000 by the government to buy a house. How could anyone be surprised sales are increasing? What will happen when we stop paying people to buy houses? Or should we just keep paying people forever...?

I'm in the process of buying a house right now. I held out for 6 years waiting for the RE bubble to sufficiently burst. I finally bit the bullet - but I think its way too early. I just couldn't wait any longer - my family needed more than a 1000 square foot apartment. And yes the $8,000 in free money I'm getting kind of helped with the decision. Of course, once that $8,000 credit is taken off the table, you can expect property values to drop by about $8,000 across the board. Oh well.

My expectation is that home prices keep dropping, in my area at least, for another couple of years.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth

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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby kiryan » Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:36 pm

I'm closing on a new house on 9/10. $8,000 interest free money and historic low interest rates were what pushed me over the edge. I don't think there is very much profit in my sales price given what I know of home construction.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby kiryan » Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:57 pm

Wow, now here is something to celebrate

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/ ... 8813.shtml

"The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time unemployment claims fell nationwide to a seasonally-adjusted 570,000, down from an upwardly revised figure of 580,000"

First-time unemployment claims FELL (you mean stayed virtually the same) to a a seasonally adjusted (meaning more people are actually unemployed, but we statistically adjusted those out) to 570,000, down (you mean stayed the same) from an upwardly revised figure of 580,000 (meaning you lied last time you put out the numbers).

Employment looks better than it did in January, but it certainly isn't much better... at its height it was averaging high 600s with a high of 740k. Absolute # of people on unemployment is falling not because people are getting jobs, but because they've been on unemployment too long now.

This is one thing I don't understand about the stock market... these numbers ought to be outright devestating for a consumer driven economy. About as good as salt on a shit sandwich. How the fuk can investors be cheering anything (especially banks) when more than 500k people have lost their job every month for a year. As the population grows, the # of jobs needs to grow to maintain stability.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Ragorn » Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:19 pm

kiryan wrote:This is one thing I don't understand about the stock market... these numbers ought to be outright devestating for a consumer driven economy. About as good as salt on a shit sandwich. How the fuk can investors be cheering anything (especially banks) when more than 500k people have lost their job every month for a year. As the population grows, the # of jobs needs to grow to maintain stability.

The unemployment figures for the last couple months indicate we're at the top of the bell curve, and we will be beginning the inevitable descent soon. That's what investors see when those numbers are published... they see a steady downward acceleration on the number of jobless claims. That acceleration is what drives the market, not the numbers themselves.

That's why "unemployment is up, but it's up less than we expected" is a positive market force. It shows people with money that things are moving in the direction of getting better, and that's what matters.
- Ragorn
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby kiryan » Thu Aug 27, 2009 4:50 pm

I agree and understand about how bad news that isnt so bad is a positive.

However, I think its very premature to say that employment is turning around or that the prospects are even positive given you've had a very modest decline in job losses. if this is a normal bell curve, its a long one and we are in for several more months of losing 500k jobs a month.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Ragorn » Thu Aug 27, 2009 6:58 pm

"New jobless claims" does not mean "we lost this many more jobs from our economy." The figure for new jobless claims is simply a measure of how many people became newly unemployed last month. It's not a running tally of how many people are unemployed, nor does it mean that the economy has "lost" 570,000 jobs this month.

What it means is that 570,000 people who were employed last month are now unemployed. The other side of the story that you're not hearing is how many of the people from past "new jobless claims" reports have been hired to new jobs since being laid off. If 570,000 people lost their jobs this month, but 700,000 people got hired to new jobs, then unemployment is DECREASING even though 570k people reported being jobless.
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Ragorn » Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:13 pm

Corth wrote:Heh - people are being given $8,000 by the government to buy a house. How could anyone be surprised sales are increasing?

Conservatives in January: LOL STIMULUS, YOU CANT SPEND YOUR WAY OUT OF A RECESSION, THAT WILL NEVER WORK

Conservatives in August: LOL WELL OF COURSE PEOPLE BUY HOUSES WHEN YOU PAY THEM FREE MONEY TO BUY HOUSES LOL STUPID DEMS

The stimulus is working :)
- Ragorn
Shar: Leave the moaning to the people who have real issues to moan about like rangers or newbies.
Corth: Go ask out a chick that doesn't wiggle her poon in people's faces for a living.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Ashiwi » Thu Aug 27, 2009 9:11 pm

Rags, give it up. We're only this far in, with three more years to go. That's a lot of brick wall for you to bang your head against.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby kiryan » Thu Aug 27, 2009 11:30 pm

Good point. I haven't been seeing the reports on how many jobs the economy has lost for the last couple months.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009 ... aphic.html

(bell curve of job losses, doesn't have july but does show that job losses really dipped early 2Q with a pretty high spike in June) graph makes things look pretty promising other than the aberration of the june spike.

And an article critical of the July statistics. The labor force shrank which caused unemployment to dip (because basically people gave up looking for a job). Also says we lost 247,000 jobs in July. So 570k new claims, but only 247k losses. So for every person who found a job, 2 people who had jobs lost theirs. But yea things are getting better...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/0 ... 54216.html
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Corth » Fri Aug 28, 2009 1:53 am

Ragorn wrote:
Corth wrote:Heh - people are being given $8,000 by the government to buy a house. How could anyone be surprised sales are increasing?

Conservatives in January: LOL STIMULUS, YOU CANT SPEND YOUR WAY OUT OF A RECESSION, THAT WILL NEVER WORK

Conservatives in August: LOL WELL OF COURSE PEOPLE BUY HOUSES WHEN YOU PAY THEM FREE MONEY TO BUY HOUSES LOL STUPID DEMS

The stimulus is working :)


The second you get rid of the stimulus the home prices drop $8k. In the meantime, the cost of the program in conjunction with all the other stupid stimulus programs will be devestating. It isn't working - we are closer to the top than the bottom. Lets talk about it in 10 years when we are finishing up our second straight lost decade like Japan is now after they tried the same exact thing as us.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



Goddamned slippery mage.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Todrael » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:08 am

Corth wrote:Lets talk about it in 10 years when we are finishing up our second straight lost decade like Japan is now after they tried the same exact thing as us.

Well, homo sapiens will be extinct within the next 100 years, so if you're going to talk about longer time frames, you might as well extend them to the point where it matters. Or rather, where it stops mattering...

Alternatively, we should take your advice and literally stop talking about it for 10 years :)
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Corth » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:50 am

Says the guy who wants citations after every sentence.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



Goddamned slippery mage.
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Re: New Home Sales Jump 9.6%

Postby Todrael » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:53 am

There's no way of actually predicting the future, especially that far out. I've just been in a fairly negative mood since I started reading materials on humanity's potential. Even making predictions in the first place can change the outcome if enough people try to avert it.
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