2012 political strategy

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kiryan
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2012 political strategy

Postby kiryan » Tue Jun 14, 2011 6:14 pm

3 articles that I recently found interesting, but not quite enough to post individually.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/seiu-ca ... lican-pac/

THis I really don't like. It would be easy to take a pot shot at the unions and say they have too much money to spend on politics if they can afford to run candidates in both parties. You want to talk about a rigged election? an election bought? There is other examples too like the couple Dem turned "tea party" candidates in 2010. However, Rush also suggested it in the 2008 primaries, go register dem and vote for hillary and the "jungle" primary situation in California is starting to draw some GOP strategies aimed at splitting the Democrat vote to ensure their candidate gets a date in November. Apparently the Dems have the same idea... run a moderate candidate in a GOP leaning district to split the GOP vote or at least elect a moderate instead of a conservative GOP.

====

Next criticisms of Obama

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/1 ... 75986.html

Theres been a few stories on his fund raising, but this one takes the cake. They are talking about pacifying a big donor making him think he's getting special access to continue to get donor checks. I don't know whats more distasteful, taking bribes or tricking people into thinking your taking a bribe. Regardless either should be beneath our politicians and especially the president.

There were a few articles one about the Obama essentially holding a fund raiser in the WH. Course thats not really new. Also criticisms of the politician practice of taking a trip for "official busisness" and packing every extra possible minute with partsian activities. Michelle Obama is apparently going to California for a speech and an appearance on a TV show, but doing 4 fundraisers as well.... basically same on both sides of the aisle Bush did it too. Side twist... and they want to lambast christie for taking a helicopter to his kid's ball game? I'd rather pay for him to go to his kid's ball game, he's missing that because of the work of the people, not to raise cash for his political party / re-election campaign.

Also are the articles on Obama's peddling for money from Wall street... the audacity... to call them fat cats, attack and villify their industry... and hold your hand out. You have to ask yourself... why would you give money to a man who villifies your industry... only one possible answer, because you have to in order to play the game. Almost as bad as that senator who wrote that firm and said hey we were reviewing our donors list and I sit on a committee important to your industry but I don't see any record of recent donations... I mean seriously?

Of course, I don't want to be too hard, Ron Paul accepted money from a neo nazi and basically said... if he thinks I'm going to change my position because he gave me money... he's crazy. Obama would be crazy not to ask... but still the gall. Does he actually think he's the messiah?

====

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ds-newsxml

Ok next one was foreshadowed since 2009, but seriously... A quote from Obama that if he didn't run/win a second term no big deal or maybe even good? What the hell do you call this, the Newt Gingrich starategy? I'll run for president if you hand me the nomination and I don't have to want it or work for it?

I have to wonder if he's trying to cast himself as a reluctant leader who sacrifices for the people by being burdened as president... you know like Hugo Chavez or Ghadaffi. I believe it is Obama's honest feeling, he has such a huge ego that it won't matter to him if he doesn't have a 2nd term, he's a god among men in his own mind (and those of his loyal fans the world over). but seriously, what an ego... or is it part of an attempt to subtley infer he's not part of washington despite running it for 2 years because he doesn't care about being re-elected? or maybe he's trying to channel some founding fathers, a little george washington integrity! Very interesting, perhaps stupid thing to say, perhaps brilliant... perhaps preparing himself psycoemotionally for a defeat that he can play off later, ah i didn't really care anyways.

====

Herman Cain... seriously... i have to agree with teh liberals that saying you wouldn't put a muslim in your cabinet... is just dumb and racist / bigotted. clarifying it to say you wouldnt put a muslim extremist/terrorist did not really help because no one in their right mind would think you would. maybe you shouldn't put a pro lifer in your cabinet either because of the lunatics that kill abortion doctors. Seriously... for a guy who seriously wow'd a ton of people on the right, you just about sunk your boat last night... you probably did, you just don't realize it yet. and really, i'll be racist for a second, you're black... you really should know better than to judge people based on some ridiculous label (except democrats, feel free to judge them).

Newt Gingrich, man you are almost as big of an ego as Obama. When your entire campaign staff quits, its a big flashing neon sign that you're done. campaigns have unravelled for just a chief member quitting... an entire staff says more about you than anyone will ever believe coming out of your mouth.

Huckabee saying he's not running. I like it, I'll vote for him in 2016. I think he's showing wisdom. let romney run in 2012 against an opponent that will be difficult to beat, then expect him to let you play 1st fiddle in a 2016 if he fails to unseat Obama. Its a gamble for Huckabee if he becomes irrelevant, but Huckabee and Romney being at logger heads in 2008 + Giuliani dropping out to give the GOP moderates the primary win (McCain got all the moderate votes while Romney and Hucabee split) is why we ended up with a GOP candidate the conservatives could not rally behind and would not work for in 2008.
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Corth » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:51 am

About Obama being difficult to beat in 2012...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43411668/ns ... sion_2012/

I think he is incredibly vulnerable. The only thing he has in his favor is that there is no particular enthusiasm for any of the current Republican candidates. They will be beating themselves up for a while - during which Obama will be above the fray.

I'm kind of intrigued by Rick Perry's possible candidacy. He has been a successful governor of a big state and has the tea party behind him. I think Huckabee could have actually done quite well if he had chosen to run - but he has a better job anyway. Sarah Palin, unfortunately, will be a non-factor (except by way of her endorsement). The Dems managed to irrevocably demonize her - and they'll do it to Bachman too. Newt Gingrich is cooked, and Tim Pawlenty is probably just not a big enough name.

Marco Rubio as a potential VP candidate is intriguing. He'll get a certain percentage of latinos that would otherwise vote for Obama - AND he is popular in a key battleground state, Florida. Though the Dems will be all over him - they have massive hate for Republicans who come from their perceived demographic (minorities and women). Guessing they will try and portray him as a stupid inexperienced lightweight. Stewart and Colbert are probably already working on their jokes.

Don't forget that the 2010 census caused a shift in electoral votes away from Democratic locks like Florida and New York, and towards more Republican leaning states. And also don't forget that the economy seems to be on a downswing at a most inopportune time for Obama. That exact issue made George Bush the first a one term president. Also, Obama's 2008 strength in large part was due to a wave of anti-republican sentiment due to the unpopularity of George Bush the second.

All in all, I think Obama has a pretty big wall to climb.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth

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kiryan
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby kiryan » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:52 pm

Huckabee and Romney can not run in the same primary... they vye for the same demographic. They both lose when that happens and Romney never stopped campaigning from 2008. Huckabee could've gotten in Romney's way but it would've been mutually assured destruction.

I like Rubio as a VP pick in terms of electability.

My dream team would be Palin as President and Ron Paul as VP. I wouldn't oppose flipping it, but Sarah I think would use the bully pulpit far more frequently. I'm not saying she would be effective overall, and by all accounts unelectable, but I'd love to put her into office. Unfortunately she'd probably go out like Nixon and probably be a bad president. Seriously, imagine Palin with the bully pulpit... do you think she'd hold back her honest feelings on anything anywhere? On China? On muslim extremists? on homosexuality and abortion?
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby kiryan » Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:38 pm

Here's a pretty good article

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... fpo-direct

And yet there is a jittery sense among Republican savants that Romney is a straw man, ready to be toppled, because the party has changed irrevocably. It has traded in country-club aristocracy for pitchfork populism. The Tea Partyers and talk-show hosts who define the new Republican Party believe in the opposite of primogeniture. They believe in the moral purity of political virginity.

== I tend to agree with the GOP changed. pitch fork populism is obviously a loaded slur, but yes the conservatives in this country are f*kin pissed. Hopefully, we are still a majority.

...
In addition, the very structure of the nominating process has changed. It won't be a stately procession from Iowa to New Hampshire to South Carolina to Florida this time. It will look more like the NCAA basketball tournament, only with two instead of four brackets: the Iowa bracket, which will feature the social-conservative and populist candidates <....> and the New Hampshire bracket, which will feature more-moderate candidates <....> — Iowa or New Hampshire, populist pitchforkery or center-right plausibility.

== Agree. again, the problem with 2008, 2 moderate candidates vs 2 conservative candidates except 1 moderate forfeited and gave their bracket winner a 10 primary rest/win streak.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... z1PSQefI4O

Here's another interesting one. On Obama's election math.

1 ) If the GOP nominee picks someone like Marco Rubio, Obama must employ the "Hispanic Defense" (similar to the Sicilian Defense in chess) and concede Florida, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, but protect himself in all important Ohio and win New Hampshire to give him four more years.

2) If the GOP doesn't pick Rubio, Obama would be prudent to employ the "Florida attack" instead. Locking up Florida, and splitting states like New Mexico and Arizona also gives Obama the win.

When it comes to potential VP candidates for the President, by the numbers Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the clear choice. Over the last year Suffolk polls in Florida, Nevada, Ohio and New Hampshire have recorded stratosphere-like favorability -- far beyond Barack Obama's with strength among Independents. She's the combination of the first two strategies above -- popular with Hispanics, strong in Ohio, a generational rock star in Florida.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-pal ... 77521.html
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Corth » Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:21 pm

I really hope Palin doesn't decide to run for president. I actually like her quite a bit, and think she has been unfairly demonized - but demonized nonetheless. She is too divisive at this point. You either love her or hate her - and that isn't a good thing.

I tend to agree that a 'country club republican' will have a difficult time in this cycle. Even if Romney wins the nomination he won't generate much energy at all from the right wing. I think if Perry runs, and it's looking likely, he has a clear path to the nomination.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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kiryan
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby kiryan » Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:30 pm

Palin now has too much baggage... I agree with your assessment. If I could literally put her in the white house I would, but if she has to run for it in this America, I'd rather go with a more electable candidate.

I don't think Romney will have as much trouble as you suggest... he's been building his political operation for 4 years. He is raking in the cash, the sponsorships. He's operating in stealth mode I believe... and even if he's not the nominee, I think he'll throw his operation behind the winner.

Also, I do not think any current GOP candidate except Gingrich will firebomb the primary or each other to try a long shot win except maybe Ron Paul answering a setup question. They want to win, but they want Obama gone more than anything else. Especially Palin. She's really on a martyr's crusade... and its probably not hurting that she can milk it for financial benefit too.
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Kindi » Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:49 pm

i predict with 90% confidence that obama will receive between 40% and 60% of the popular vote in 2012
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Corth » Mon Jun 20, 2011 2:31 pm

Rofl! Hilarious!
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Tue Jun 21, 2011 2:25 am

The numbers do back up this prediction.
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If you don’t wanna join him, you got to beat him."
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Corth » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:24 pm

Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



Goddamned slippery mage.
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Kifle » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:26 pm

I really doubt Obama will win at this point. He wont be able to get the voters who usually don't vote to vote. And I think Rove is pretty spot on, for the most part, in his analysis as well. Hate the man as you will, but he's an evil genius ;) He knows his shit.
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Corth » Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:06 am

I doubt he wins also... But the republicans have a knack for picking the wrong candidate and that can be a huge factor. Anything can happen in the next year.

The dems probably lose the senate in 2012 as well - possibly though unlikely to the point that they cannot even fillibuster.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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kiryan
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby kiryan » Sun Jun 26, 2011 12:32 am

... I dunno...

Are democrat voters really voting their pocket books? Will they really choose the guy who ostensibly is your enemy (GOP against all minorities and immigrants) over the guy who is being blamed for a bad economy or not moving fast enough on your agenda? Do unions, under unprecedented assault... really going to not turn out or give money to Obama because they're mad at him letting the GOP kick them in the ass? Really? If nothing else... they must realize that the election of 2010 had severe consequences on them and work even harder...

Furthermore Obama has a lot of cards he can still play due to executive power... he could bring all the troops home tomorrow, he could grant pardons to all illegal immigrants tomorrow... he already declined to defend DOMA in court... how could he get impeached while Dems control the senate (yes its possible but he has a lot of rope).

and then throw this in there... dems have for the past few years been trying to buy the elections of Secretary of state across the US. Why? To eliminate partsianship in determing which votes to count and not to count... or in other words, we want to decide which votes to count. and liberals are worried about foreign corporate donations buying electios... Soros is already invested in doing exactly that.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... ction-ove/

I really think its dangerous to suppose that Obama could lose in 2012. Even less on predictions on the senate. Look at how many democrats rode Obama's coattails in 2008... My biggest fear is he wins again or narrowly loses but still manages to lock up 20 of the Dem senate seats up for grabs for another 6 years. That'll be a solid # of senate seats that are good for 4 and 6 years respectively (4 for the ones locked up in 2008). It is absolutely critical that GOP punishes the Dems hard in the senate in 2012 even if they don't win the presidency. I'm very very concerned.

The only thing that I see as a good trend... is that all of these anti union attacks... all of these conservative battles that have essentially been won over the past 9 months... must be causing MASSIVE cash drain for liberals... the fight for planned parent hood, pbs, anti union laws... this is true fox-pivner strategy, overwhelm the system... the system is liberal organizations the overwhelming is the rash of laws and action against their interests. Hopefully they'll drain all their resources and energy ahead of 2012.... hopefully we don't just piss them off like Obama did to the GOP from 2008-2010.
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Corth » Sun Jun 26, 2011 3:45 am

That's the only good trend you see? From the Republican election perspective almost every trend has been good lately.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby kiryan » Sun Jun 26, 2011 6:19 pm

I'm not seing it... I read about it, but I distrust the media... Fox paints it too rosy, the liberals paint it gloomy... both are pushing an agenda, trying to strategize... I remember all the liberal papers trumpeting how great McCain was as an independent... until the primaries were over then BAM they immediately set on destroying him.

I'm just not seeing it on the ground... the 2010 elections were good, but the question is will the overreach fire up the democrats, especially the unions... and will the GOP keep the fire in their belly. I have hopes, but I'm not seeing enough positves on the ground to say everything is positive. I'm seeing a decline in enthusiasm on the ground since 2010. I'm seeing independents remember that GOP is anti abortion and grumbling about Planned Parenthood. Also I look at things like Soros' secreatary of state project and feel like we're being outmanuevered... I'm very concerned about 2012... even if things are looking up, its a must win as far as i'm concerned.
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby kiryan » Mon Jul 11, 2011 7:06 pm

some random thoughts on obama strategy... osciliates between is he a moron or is he a super genius, but thats all setup for the final paragraphs which are interesting.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marty-kap ... 94708.html

Right is the new center. If only Nixon could go to China, then only Obama can move the Democratic Party far enough from its past to survive into the future. This is a teachable moment. It doesn't matter that on the issues in this debt ceiling battle, Americans are 80-to-20 on the Democrats' side. Without a progressive tax code, entitlement spending is unsustainable, and without Wall Street's support, no Democratic presidential candidate will be able raise enough campaign money to compete. Republicans have pulled the center so far to the right, and their media demagoguery has so spooked public discourse, that making the case for government as a guarantor of justice, opportunity and decency is, like it or not, a losing proposition. Choose heartbroken pragmatism over bitter idealism. Don't let the good deal you can't get be the enemy of the only one you can. Harsh? Wake up and smell the Hannity.

== right is the new center... intriguing idea for a liberal to espouse. I esepecially like how they go on to talk about GOP pulling the country so far to the right that the center has moved (isn't that what the left did in 2008? and really for the last 30 years with their minority of america activism?).

I can live with the thought that an independent in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin or Colorado will cast a vote that's worth more than mine. I can warm to the idea that putting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid on the table is a trick to trap Eric Cantor. But I'd much rather believe that Obama is a bad poker player than the possibility that I'm the one being played.

== their vote is worth more since independents in a few states will decide who the next president is. obama the bad poker player is referring to the strategy of seemingly compromising so he can win term 2 and unleash the 2008 obama the liberals voted for (since he can't run for re-election again he doesn't have to do the will of the voters). I'm the one being played = obama is selling the progressive agenda out to get re-elected.

Interesting perspective. Given Obama's past action, I think its a trap. We got extended bush tax cuts last december in exchange for at least 1 element of the progressive agenda permanently enshrined into law. Less than 6 months later he wants to raise taxes again. The problem with the writers perspective is that America always was right of center contrary to his insane suggestions of 80% of america being behind the progressives. The problem with Obama selling himself as the great compromiser / triangulator that clinton did is that ... heathcare reform is not viewed as a compromise and the compromise in december was ... obviously not one. Being willing to compromise on medicaid and social security sounds good, but if it actually cuts them obama will pay as much as anyone else now that he has endorsed the cuts... He may win independents... but I think he could lose more from the elderly even if he does sit around saying I kept the GOP from cutting more. I'm increasingly liking GOP chances, but dems have been planning ahead for this election and I have concerns. They've had 4 years to research romney alone.
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Re: 2012 political strategy

Postby Ragorn » Mon Jul 11, 2011 9:15 pm

I don't think Obama can lose. The facts simply support him too strongly, and the far-right conservatives who are unswayed by facts wouldn't have voted for him anyway.

Healthcare passed: Check.
Osama captured: Check.
Economy recovering: Check.
Attempts at bipartisan compromise: Check.
Solid Republican pack leader to run against: Nope.

It'll be a tougher fight than it was in 2008, assuming the Republicans can muster someone more votable than Sarah Palin to the ballot. But I don't see much threat here. The biggest challenge for the Democrats is framing their own victory... too often, party leaders are unwilling to cash in on the political capital they create, and they let the Republicans get off too easy for their constant gaffes and missteps.

I do worry about 2016 though. Biden lacks the charisma that Obama brings to the table, and I don't feel he's electable even if his policies are sound. We'll need to bring someone else to the forefront by then.
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