Obama's Stimulus

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Teflor Lyorian
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Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:35 pm

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/oba ... 76014.html

* Cost $278,000 per job supposedly saved.
* Undermined economic recovery.
* Has been causing the economy to shed jobs over the last six months.
* Put the Federal Government $666 billion deeper into debt.

- Obama's Council of Economic Advisors
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Teflor Lyorian
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:43 pm

"Again, this is the verdict of Obama’s own Council of Economic Advisors, which is about as much of a home-field ruling as anyone could ever ask for. In truth, it’s quite possible that by borrowing an amount greater than the regular defense budget or the annual cost of Medicare, and then spending it mostly on Democratic constituencies rather than in a manner genuinely designed to stimulate the economy, Obama’s “stimulus” has actually undermined the economy’s recovery — while leaving us (thus far) $666 billion deeper in debt."

Fun dig.
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If you don’t wanna join him, you got to beat him."
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Teflor Lyorian
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:46 pm

"Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009 and has been growing solidly since then, in large part because of the tax cuts"

- Obama's Council of Economic Advisors

Suck it, ...Sarvis. Did anyone else bitch about tax cuts? I think a few of you did.
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If you don’t wanna join him, you got to beat him."
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Teflor Lyorian
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:47 pm

Link to the Council of Economic Advisor's report: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default ... report.pdf

For your convenience.
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Kindi
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Kindi » Thu Jul 07, 2011 9:09 pm

i don't think GDP matters, at least not in the way ppl think it does

that said, the president, congress, and the supreme court (that is, "govt") AND private sector, finance companies, etc. are all sucking pretty hard when it comes to economic matters
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Corth » Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:55 am

Please explain that part about GDP
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth

Goddamned slippery mage.
Teflor Lyorian
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Fri Jul 08, 2011 9:29 pm

Corth wrote:Please explain that part about GDP

I too am curious.
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Kindi » Sat Jul 09, 2011 12:49 am

GDP is useful for some things. it can backfire and be misused tho

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_dome ... an_economy

you mine ore from the ground, you increase GDP
you mold that ore into widgets, you increase GDP
you dump those widgets in the sea, you increase GDP
you clean up the sea of tossed widgets, you increase GDP
everyone gets sick from widget radiation, you pay for crapton of hospital bills, you increase GDP
you build underground bunkers for the widgets, you increase GDP

you question the stupidity of mining, molding, dumping, cleaning, and storing all those useless widgets that make ppl sick, you don't budge GDP an inch.

GDP is just a measure of 'economic activity' - doesn't measure value. it's a perverse incentive in a lot of ways. of course 'value' is an artificial construct bordering on philosophy anyway, but before you think my example above was theoretical, that rational actors don't do that kind of thing unless it produces value, look at what China's doing to 'boost' their economy.......

http://www.buyric.com/news/2010/03/chin ... ities-027/

a lot of focus on GDP is just to watch the number go up. it's not about making the world a better place
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Kindi » Sat Jul 09, 2011 8:25 pm

see also, this article on GDP fetishism

http://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/ ... onGDP.html

and that goodhart's law ("Once a social or economic measure is turned into a target for policy, it will lose any information content that had qualified it to play such a role in the first place") applies to GDP
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:41 am

In that case, GDP is exactly what I thought it was. What did you mean by saying that you think GDP doesn't matter? Or what did you imply by what 'people' think it means as it relates to the point?
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Kindi » Sun Jul 10, 2011 12:02 pm

i meant that it's the wrong measure to use to judge the state of our economy
Adriorn Darkcloak
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Adriorn Darkcloak » Sun Jul 10, 2011 12:42 pm

How about using unemployment?

"Unemployment has climbed for three straight months and is now at 9.2 percent. There's no precedent, in data going back to 1948, for such a high rate two years into what economists say is a recovery."
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Teflor Lyorian
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Sun Jul 10, 2011 5:39 pm

Kindi wrote:i meant that it's the wrong measure to use to judge the state of our economy

It really isn't, unless the profit motive is severely diminished. But disagree with most economists all you want. I do with quite a few academics.
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Kifle » Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:34 pm

Teflor Lyorian wrote:
Kindi wrote:i meant that it's the wrong measure to use to judge the state of our economy

It really isn't, unless the profit motive is severely diminished.


In theory, Kindi is right, but you bring up a nice point. There is currently no incentive for companies to run in a waste loop. It is highly unsustainable and would only show growth for a short period of time followed by an even larger dip into recession. The end result would be private companies losing investors and eventually going bankrupt. The only institution that could pull this off is the government as they print and borrow money in such large amounts with what used to seem like a sustainable cycle up until now. I would agree that the government does do this to an extent by creating new sectors of government like homeland security, road construction, etc., which would account for a small percentage of growth, but not enough to account for what we see.

The more probable scenario is that companies are indeed producing more; however, outsourcing continues to be a contributor to the high unemployment rate. Additionally, at least around here, many companies are simply raising production rate for their employees and forcing mandatory overtime. Most companies, I would imagine, are holding off on employment until economic indicators allow them to safely increase their staff -- at least this is what I tell companies that hire me. It is a good hedge when the economy could be showing a false recovery (the double dip).
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Teflor Lyorian
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby Teflor Lyorian » Sun Jul 10, 2011 9:56 pm

Unfortunately, government subsidies do encourage some to enter into the waste loop. Politically designated dollars can be far more damaging than those dictated by non-governmental market forces.
"You see, the devil haunts a hungry man.
If you don’t wanna join him, you got to beat him."
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Re: Obama's Stimulus

Postby kiryan » Mon Jul 11, 2011 5:16 pm

what teflor said.

the big thing in international aid over the past decade or so is how non cash "aid" results in "dumping" on the recipient country which destroys the existing industry. For example what would happen to farming in America if Brazil donated 1 trillion pounds of food. What would happen to farmers markets, grocery stores, even john deere (who makes farming equipment)? After the food aid stops... what happens to the population? Do the farms come back overnight?

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